Economic Indicators Positive for Months Ahead
Luma Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, John Silvis, and his team regularly review a range of economic data to forecast what to expect for the economy. Here are some of the data they’ve analyzed, which suggest the economy should continue to be strong in the near term.
- November, December and January tend to be the best 3-month period of the year.1
- Proprietary surveys of over 350 companies, conducted by Evercore ISI, indicate sales are strong – they predict this will lead to a 2.5% growth in GDP (gross domestic product, which tracks the health of the economy) in the next 12 months.2
- The housing market remains strong with 1.3 million housing starts in October, one of the highest readings since the financial crisis.3
- Consumer net worth is rising and unemployment rates remain historically low, which sets us up well for the holiday season.4
- The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2019. According to Ned Davis Research, 13 out of the last 15 times this happened, the market was up one year later an average of 14.7%.5
Although the political climate is unstable, we believe the market has already factored in the possibility of impeachment. And next year is an election year, which historically has tended to be positive overall for the markets. With the primary season kicking off soon, however, we anticipate some volatility in the months ahead.
As always, at Luma Wealth we believe in taking a long-term diversified approach. If you would like to discuss any of these topics in more detail, please reach out to your Luma Wealth team.
1 S&P 500 Historical 4Q Seasonal Pattern Data Since 1950, Strategas.
2 Evercore ISI Company Surveys (Retailers, Auto Dealers, Homebuilders, Shopping Guide Cos, Credit Card Cos, Banks, Airlines, Trucking Cos, Tech Cos, Cap Goods Cos, Mfg Cos), Evercore ISI, Nov 15, 2019.
3 U.S. Housing Starts, 3 Mo. Avg, Oct 1, 2019.
4 Household Net Worth, not seasonally adjusted USD billions, JP Morgan
5 Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Third Rate Cut in Fed Easing Cycles, ©2019 Ned Davis Research, Inc
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All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.
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